Iran’s repressive system thrives on crisis. While many called for a ceasefire, this pause is frightening for many ordinary Iranians — it grants the regime time to update its coercive apparatus and redirect its full arsenal against dissidents.

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday after a rocky start, giving rise to cautious hope that it could lead to a long-term peace agreement even as Tehran insists it will not give up its nuclear program.